NBAPrediction: Pick: Memphis Grizzlies | Grade: C | Edge score: 30.81 | Proj score: 115–113 | Proj total: 228
This matchup swings on Clutch edge: Memphis gets the nod thanks to a solid edge score in a razor-thin projection. Despite market attention on the Bulls' -200 moneyline, the model leans toward the Grizzlies at home, given Chicago’s shrinking rotation and the near-even projected margin.
Memphis brings its standard offensive punch—115.1 points per game—fronted by Ty Jerome and Ja Morant, both near 20 points per game. Jaren Jackson Jr.'s inside-out toolkit stays central, especially with Brandon Clarke and Jahmai Mashack out, thinning the frontcourt depth. On the other side, the Bulls' typical scoring and rebounding edge is offset by a depleted lineup: Coby White (calf), Collin Sexton, and Anfernee Simons are all out, stripping away perimeter creation and forcing heavier playmaking loads onto Josh Giddey and Nikola Vucevic. That undermines Chicago’s 46.9% shooting and rebounding advantage.
Clutch leans Memphis on the moneyline, diverging from the market’s strong Bulls pricing. The model’s 2-point projected spread for the Grizzlies clashes sharply with the listed Bulls -4.5, generating a strong spread lean to Memphis. Projected total—228—sits well below the 246.5 market line, making “under” the clear model preference.
Sharp model edge against a wounded Chicago backcourt.